A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
