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A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event.

Sudden Shift in Wagers

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been apprehended.

A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K.

It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

However the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in market sentiment right before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated a financial reform advocate.

A small number of other platform users also earned large payouts from predicting the capture.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Politicians are beginning to pay attention.

A bill presented on Monday would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs.

Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate.

Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting industry.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."